Weekend Estimates 19-21 March 2010: Alice Rules for 3rd week

[TFM]

Friday box office estimates via DeadlineHollywood:

1. Alice in Wonderland - $8.6M. Est Weekend - $30M.
2. The Bounty Hunter - $7.5M. Est Weekend - $21M.
3. Diary of A Wimpy Kid - $7M. Est Weekend - $24M.
4. Repo Men - $2M. Est Weekend - $5.5M.
5. She's Out of My League - $1.7M. Est Weekend - $5.5M.
6. Green Zone - $1.7M. Est Weekend - $5M.

Alice stays strong, Bounty Hunter meets expectations, Diary breaks out in a big way, Repo Men flounders, League holds on good word of mouth and Green Zone melts and becomes probably the first big BOMB of the year. It cost $100M to produce and may only gross $35M.

 

[RauCous]

There's SOO many new movies out? Wow
I predict Alice will climb 1 or 2 million from estimates... no i have no idea how i came to that lol.

 

[Wyspa]

Alice will probably hold out to become the 3rd highest grossing movie. That place currently belongs to The Dark Knight, which was unseated by AVATAR in its bid to claim the top spot. So the former champion Titanic is second.

 

[TFM]

I don't think Alice will even enter the top 10 on the all-time US charts. So far it has grossed around $266M after 3 weeks which is an amazing figure. BUT Dreamworks' How To Train Your Dragon is opening next weekend, and its in 3D, which means Alice will lose most of its screens to Dragon and fall sharply under the weight of the competition for its target demo.

I see it realistically topping off at around $320M, which will put it at number 21 behind Shrek The Third which grossed $322M back in summer 07.

 

[Wyspa]

You do have a point there. But i think it has some staying power left. But you could be right. Believe it or not but AVATAR is still showing in local cinemas. Plus 20th Century FOX is re-releasing the movie in the US with extended scenes. So AVATAR could indeed pile on some more millions yet.

 

[TFM]

Yeh! Avatar is planned for an extended cut re-release so it should gross much more and maintain its number one status.

About Alice, remember not only was Avatar a revolutionary film as far as film technology goes, but it had the Christmas holidays when kids were out of school to help grosses during the week. Alice doesn't. Oh, and don't forget that Oscar buzz.

 

[RauCous]

March 19-21, 2010
Alice in Wonderland $34,189,969

Wow climbed by four million! now at $265,433,637

 

[TFM]

Yeh, had a much stronger Sunday than expected.

 

[Wyspa]

But its starting to slow down... 3D flick How to train your dragon is coming to steal IMAX 3D screens.. just like what Alice did to Avatar.. But they had a good run.

 

[TFM]

Either way, it was going to fall, 3D or not. No demo competition was the only thing holding it up. Word of mouth has been average at best, and its drops are much larger for family fare when you adjust for attendance on 3D prices. Still, Disney has got to be ecstatic about its box office thus far. They were estimating $70M opening and $200M total so they've gotten a lot more in the bag than they ever expected.

 

[RauCous]

I find the hype was better than the word of mouth turned out to be. I guess it really is the native vs converted 3d. I didn't know it could impact that much.

 

[TFM]

Exactly. Movies are being converted to 3D just so they can charge extra money for tickets and make more in the end, but the quality is not worth it. Clash of the Titans is being converted, one of MANY. I'm only interested in seeing movies that were filmed specifically for 3D.

 

[RauCous]

Alice In Wonderland is now at $780,509,518 World Wide! Yes that is an excellent number. WW 800 club soon. it is the Third highest world wide total in the last 365 days behind massive Avatar and Transformers 2